Tuesday 8 November 2016

The search for Smarts part 2

Since my original post 'The search for Smarts', my Garmin Fenix2 came back to life. 

The achilles heel of Garmin's chosen charging technology is the contacts on the rear of the watch. With occasional muddy/sweaty use virtually guaranteed, the contacts can misbehave. Without being visibly 'dirty', the contacts can pick up some kind of oxidation, which doesn't allow the watch to charge through the charging clip. That results in a dead watch which you think is fully charged.

To fix the problem simply requires a wipe of the contacts with an abrasive fabric, wet-dry paper or the serrated edge of a coin, and the watch will happily recharge.

So, that's what happened and my Fenix2 is back to normal and my search for a new smart watch is on hold again.

In the intervening period a report was released about the state of the smart watch market in 2016. Despite the impressive marketing budgets behind many smart watch offerings, the market has declined by 51% year-on-year for the quarter. The figures were heavily driven by Apple and Garmin.

Q3 2015 was the first full quarter that the Apple Watch Series 1 was commercially available, and it took almost 70% market share in that quarter. The Apple Watch Series 2 was only available in 2 weeks of this quarter, so it's too early to say whether the 72% decline in Apple Watch sales will be offset. 

Garmin is the run-away winner in the segment, shipping 5x more watches in the quarter than in that quarter in 2015. The sport-specific smart watch market which Garmin dominates is a play-ground of micro-niches which Garmin understands and has tailored their bewildering array of watches towards. Whatever kind of athlete you are in your free time, Garmin has a watch for you. The Apple Watch, however, is a one-size fits all offering. (ok, two-sizes, but you get my point). Your Apple Watch doesn't mark you out as a triathlete, an ultra-runner, a gym-goer or a mountain climber. The Garmin on your wrist leaves no-one in any doubt which sporting preference you have.

And here's the key point in the decline of the smart watch market. Your watch is a functional accessory. It isn't your means of communication, your window on social media, your media player or your entertainment whilst commuting. It sits on your wrist as an overt display of your life-style preferences. There is a reason why people chose to wear a Rolex or a Casio, and that reason is 'difference'. The non-smart watch market is well established, with a huge range of options at both ends of the price scale. Are you a Gold Rolex or a Patek Philippe kind of guy? Are you a Casio CA53W or a Casio F91W guy? Up until mid 2015, nobody was an Apple Watch guy. And now, most people who wanted to be an Apple Watch guy already are. Everyone else is not-an-Apple-Watch-guy.

I would love to see Apple and their smartphone competitors continue to develop the rather impressive technology in smart watches over the coming years. They need to do more to tempt people away from the simplicity of a Casio, or the prestige of a luxury watch. 

I'm an CA53W guy, in case you were wondering. 

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